Ask HN: Why does the media say inflation is up every month?
by galdosdi on Hacker News.
I’m posting this on this forum because this is an innumeracy issue and you folks are very numerate. If I discuss this anywhere else the politics and emotions will distract, but the numbers are the focus here: The last three months, core CPI month over month have been 0.0%, 0.1%, and 0.4% respectively (annualized rates of about 0%, 1%, and 5% respectively, or about 2% overall) Yet for three straight months every time these numbers come out the NY Times and other media plaster a front page story saying “Inflation is stubbornly still at 8.9%” or something, because they are choosing to use a 12 month rolling average, but they all talk about it as if that’s just natural, not a choice (and a questionable choice that is at too coarse a level to see what’s happening RIGHT NOW) Certainly there’s plenty of nuance to go around — inflation has been very low for 3 months, but was rather high for months before that, so it’s hardly time to celebrate yet. But the indicators from the most recent 3 months are consistently VERY GOOD if you want inflation reduced, and this part, which is also the more news-worthy part, is not getting any attention. What’s up with this? Mainstream media has always been a little innumerate but this is a whole other level. Is it innumeracy in journalism, ideological bias, general fearmongering to sell papers, or what?